#Multifamily #CRE – 1Q 2011 reports keep rolling in on the strength of multifamily operating fundamentals. The trending is nationwide, and yes, that includes the greater Salem area and the Willamette Valley…not to mention the student housing shortfall in Corvallis!

Since it won’t take too long to count the number of deals that have been struck due to social media (analytics that is) at least I can see if my message has been on point courtesy of Wordle.com:

Cool.

(Guest Blog: Courtesy of Tanya Williamson, Marshal Commercial Funding)

Hello Commercial Real Estate Professionals/Investors,

I wanted to address the Quantitative Easing (QE) Program, which some of you may already be familiar with, given the fact that the end of this program will drastically affect rates, commercial real estate and the US economy as a whole.

Sound a little dramatic?? Well, it is…

Overall the main purpose of QE is to stimulate the economy; the Federal Reserve does this by first crediting its own account with money that it has created from nothing, in other words “printing money.”  The Fed then uses this money to buy government bonds and other financial assets directly from banks and other financial institutions. These purchases give banks the excess reserves required for them to create new money from increased lending in the banking system.  The increase in the money supply thus stimulates the economy.  Seems simple enough, right?

The first round of QE started back in November of 2008 and has been attributed to the reduction in risk of a collapse of the entire financial system following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, as well as improvements in market confidence, and the bottoming out of the recession.  After June 2010 further purchases were halted since the economy had started to improve.  Then, in August 2010, the Fed decided to renew QE because the economy wasn’t growing robustly.  In November 2010, the Fed announced it would increase QE, buying $600 billion Treasury securities by the end of June 2011; this round is referred to as QE2.  The Fed has stated numerous times that after June it will indeed halt the QE Program, why is it important to stop this process??

QE has many risks associated with it and cannot be practiced for long periods of time.  It can cause higher inflation than desired if it is used improperly or for too long, creating too much money.  It can decrease the value of the dollar.  It can also fail if banks are reluctant to lend money causing the economy not to be stimulated by the increased money supply.  The process of QE has also kept long term rates low; the massive amount of purchases made by the Fed raises the prices of the financial assets bought which in turn lowers their yield.  It has been said that the affect of QE has kept rates down by roughly 100 basis points or 1%.  So what’s supposed to happen when the Fed stops buying, where will rates go then??

A large number of investors do not agree with the whole QE Program for many reasons, including the ones above.  Just recently in March, the world’s largest bond fund, PIMCO, dumped all of its U.S. government debt ($236.9 billion) in the biggest signal yet of how negative investors have become about the U.S. Treasury market.  Bill Gross, co-head of PIMCO, has criticized the Fed’s bond-buying program as a “Ponzi Scheme.”  He recently questioned who would buy Treasuries once the Fed halts its latest round of bond purchases in June.  Gross told Reuters Insider that a 4.0 percent yield for 10-year notes is a “rational expectation” if the Fed “disappears as the buyer of last resort,” Gross said.

Are the days of exceptionally low rates soon coming to an end??  Given the information above it looks as if the answer is most definitely yes.  Who’s to say what’s actually going to happen when the Fed stops QE.  My two cents is that once this program is halted we will naturally see an increase in rates, all we can do is hope that it’s gradual versus sharp and drastic.

Right now, with the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan, the 10 year treasury has fallen 40 basis points since last Wednesday, currently sitting at 3.20%, the lowest it’s been in 3 months!!  If halting QE has the negative affect on rates like most think it will then it is in everyone’s best interest to refinance and lock in low rates within the next few months.

My advice to anyone sitting on the fence about refinancing is to just do it!!

Sources: Quantitative Easing by Wikipedia; PIMCO Total Return Dumps Government-Related Debt, Jennifer Ablan, New York (Reuters), March 9, 2011; Fed’s ‘Quantitative Easing’ Plan Has Potential Rewards and Risks, Tom Petruno, Los Angeles Times, November 4, 2010; Is More QE in Sight?, Richard Anderson, Monetary Trends, November 2010.

Kindest Regards,

Tanya Williamson

Commercial Real Estate Loan Officer

MARSHALL COMMERCIAL FUNDING, INC.

3000 NW Stucki Place, Suite 230

Hillsboro, OR 97124

(503) 614-9533 (w)

(503) 614-1887 (f)

tanya@marshallcf.com

www.marshallcf.com

Dear Nicholas,

The Results Are In!

Well, yes, the first 6 months’ results of the REIT’s operations are now reported and generally as reported by Spencer Kirk of Extra Space, there were “Improvements in virtually all metrics” of performance. This would include FFO; revenues; rental activity; asking rents; occupancy; and NOI as examples. The only things reported “down” from Q-1 to Q-2 were the number of move-outs and discounting.

The REIT’s performances are a barometer for our entire industry, not necessarily because they have so many facilities, but because they cover so large a geography across the county. But there are a number of other operators that are not just regional, but national in scope. Most of them are third-party professional management companies besides owning their own facilities. One such company is Devon Self Storage with 48 properties located in 15 states. Devon has just announced that they, too, are experiencing an increase in rental activity as they added 66,198 SF of net occupancy overall. Go to www.devonselfstorage.com and visit their new quarterly newsletter.

New Construction?

One thing operators do not have much to worry about at the moment is new construction of competing facilities. This is the third consecutive year of decreased new construction starts and for most of the operators – they can begin to regain lost occupancy and perhaps an increase in rental rates. But, yes, the smart developers have already begun looking for those in-fill sites to permit, acquire, and develop. Let’s see if the banks are ready to place new development loans to established operators. The word is that construction loans are very difficult to obtain, unless the developer only asks for 50% of cost. Therefore, supply should continue to diminish while demand catches up.

More Happy News!

Sperry Van Ness/Commercial Realty completed the off-market sale of the Brothers Moving & Storage business and propertylocated at 900 Atlantic Avenue in Brooklyn, NY. The purchaser was Storage Deluxe at a price of $10.25 million for the partial redevelopment project. Frank Relf is the architect.

“Caveat Emptor”

One of the few Latin phrases that I retained from Mrs. Metosh’s classroom in high school was “buyer beware.” It is also the caption of an article written in the NAR Commercial Source magazine for August and I couldn’t agree more when it comes time for bidding on notes/loan sale of properties. We participated in the sale of a portfolio of self storage loans last November and the burden of the due diligence fell entirely on our client as the information that was provided by the lender (seller) was incomplete, dated, and could not be relied upon. This type of transaction is not for the rookie investor.

SSA National Self Storage Conference & Trade Show

There SSA Conference and Trade Show is one week away at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas. Nick is hosting a Roundtable discussion at the Wednesday afternoon session titled, “What are Cap Rates and How Do They Affect the Value of My Facility?”

Please call myself or your SVN National Self Storage representative to schedule an appointment. The “Economic Summit” should be most interesting, as usual, with a solid cadre of industry professionals at the podium to discuss real estate as well as finance issues facing our industry today. But, if you can’t attend, then please call me and use me as a resource to learn the latest.

Courtesy of:

Nicholas J. Malagisi, SIOR

Managing Director, Sperry Van Ness/Commercial Realty

National Director of Self Storage, Sperry Van Ness International

Hello Commercial Real Estate Professionals/Investors,

In my last update I compiled the transaction activity for the first six months of 2010 and compared it to the activity seen the first six months of the last 4 years.

I used the CoStar Database focusing on Arms Length Investment Transactions > $1MM Only along the I-5 Corridor from Kelso, WA, to Eugene, OR, including the Bend, OR MSA. Based on this criteria, a total of 59 transactions closed the first 6 months of 2010. The property-type breakdown for these transactions was Multifamily – 25, Retail – 24, Office – two, Industrial – seven, and Mixed Use – one.

Of the 59 transactions above, 51 of them identified the lending source used. So how were these 51 transactions financed?

As you can see, 28 transactions or 54%, did not require conventional financing; they were either all cash buyers, the existing loans were assumed or seller financing was used. I’m sure to all of us this number is not surprising given the difficulties we’ve experienced working with lenders today.

Through my research on CoStar I also compiled the broker representation details which may be of interest to some of you. Of the 59 transactions, 48 identified broker involvement; eleven did not provide sufficient information to determine if broker representation was utilized.

As seen in my last update, transaction activity for the first six months of 2007 was at 251 and has declined ever since. When compared to the 59 transactions closed the first six months of 2010 this represents a 76% reduction in sales activity since the 2007 peak. This trend is haunting and we can only hope that it reverses in the upcoming quarters.

(Tanya Williamson is a Commercial Real Estate Loan Officer with MARSHALL COMMERCIAL FUNDING, INC., Hillsboro, OR)

Hello Commercial Real Estate Professionals/Investors,

So the first 6 months of 2010 has come and gone and we’re already in the second have of the year, crazy!  I wanted to take a look at the transaction activity this year and compare it to the activity the first 6 months of the last 4 years to get an idea of where things were and where they’re at today.

To come up with this data I used various sources, including CoStar, focusing on the criteria below.

• Transactions Closed January 1^st to June 30^th of Each Year
• Investment Activity Only
• Office, Flex, Industrial, Retail, Mixed Use, and Multi-Family Properties
• Transactions $1M and Higher
• Arms Length Transactions Only
• Transactions Completed Along the I-5 Corridor from Kelso to Eugene, Including Bend

Based on the criteria above I came up with the total transaction activity for the first 6 months of the last 5 years, which is seen below.

2006 – 201

2007 – 251

2008 – 140

2009 – 86

2010 – 59

Now I went even further and broke the transactions down by property type and put together the table below.

It’s really eye-opening to see how low the activity has fallen from the peak; it really puts the severity of this downturn into perspective. This information does not include transactions under $1M or owner-user properties so the actual activity is higher for each year but this gives you an idea of the investment activity over the years for properties sold for $1M and higher. It’ll be really interesting to see the activity for the first 6 months of 2011, hopefully the  downward trend doesn’t continue and activity starts to creep up again.

For the next update I’m going to focus on the 2010 activity seen above.  I’ll breakdown how those 59 transactions were financed to give you an idea of the financing activity in our area.  It’ll be really interesting to see how many of those transactions were all cash buys or seller financed.

So despite the dismal information above I hope you all are enjoying the summer with your family and friends and remember that if you have any questions regarding financing or would like to talk about a specific transaction I’d love to help in any way!  Thanks so much and take care!!

(Tanya Williamson is a Commercial Real Estate Loan Officer with MARSHALL COMMERCIAL FUNDING, INC., Hillsboro, OR)

One of this year’s ongoing struggles for the multifamily market has been to establish market values with so few transactions closed. Several large multifamily transactions have taken place in the PDX Metro Area recently offering a bit of clarity. The Colonnade, a 268-unit complex in Hillsboro, with the cap rate reported to be 7.2 percent. The Park at Mill Plain, a 352-unit complex in Vancouver, with the cap rate reported to be 7.47 percent. The Willow Springs apartments, a 120-unit complex in Aloha, with the cap rate reported to be 7.71 percent.

News from around the valley includes an update on the Samaritan Medical Campus in Lebanon, a land donation to the City of Silverton from a well-known developer, the opening of a new resort in Harrisburg, a study on the lack of resort facilities for tourism in Yamhill County, and starting up an office project put on hold in Corvallis.

Good news, bad news includes the arrest of the CEO and founder of Havcorp, a non-profit based in Pendleton with a grand plan, now it’s looking more like a grand scheme, to develop homeless transition facilities in counties around the state with public funding. Is the funding still available? The rescinding of the flag ban at an apartment complex in Albany tells the tale of unintended consequences for landlords. I was chatting with a young man who lives at that apartment complex this past weekend, my nephew. We were both watching the USC – ND game and connected via Facebook since he’s on his third tour of duty in Iraq right now.  My thanks to the old vets and their friends who showed up on Saturday to honor and show their support for the flag.

But in the here we go again department, the City of Tigard has decided to jump into a neighbor’s dispute and force the removal of a playhouse in a Tigard backyard. Way to go City Hall, thanks for putting your tax payer dollars to their highest and best use, not.

Lastly, a shameless plug for our next Webinar scheduled for Monday, October 26 at 10:00AM. This month’s topic is Green Real Estate. To that end, an article on the financial necessity of going green, experts are eschewing the politics and saying look at the economics of going green.

Have a successful week!

Christopher Columbus was refused by the Kings’ of England, France, Portugal, and even Queen Isabella of Spain at first, the capital and infrastructure necessary to realize his dream of discovering a westward route to Marco Polo’s lands of jewels and spices. In the end, he did not discover the sought after route, he discovered a whole New World for european trade and expansion. Like Columbus’s quest for a new route, their is a question for us all these days about a “new normal” with the US economy. Take a few moments to ponder your route to discovery in the “new world” of commercial real estate while you’re reading today’s links.

Affordable housing developers and managers have had a busy year, even with the current poor state of the tax credit market. Here are updates for projects in Yachats, Seaside, and the Rockwood neighborhood in NE Portland. At the same time, a debate is simmering regarding requiring landlords to allow Section 8 vouchers…Deborah Imse, Executive Director of the Metro Multifamily Housing Association provides a landlord’s side of the debate.

While we’re on the topic of landlords, many times, landlords are their own worst enemies. Here are two stories which highlight the need for landlords to be clear, concise, and fair (as in understanding a policy’s fair housing implications) with the implementation and enforcement of rules and regulations. In Albany, a story about a landlord banning the display of the American flag has hit the wire reports. And across the nation, clothesline policies are getting a review. “The issue has brought together younger folks who are more pro-environment and very older folks who remember a time before clotheslines became synonymous with being too poor to afford a dryer,” said a Democratic lawmaker from Virginia, State Senator Linda T. Puller. This is an interesting perspective for me. Is the chicken debate ongoing in cities across Oregon more about class and less about health and sanitation? Interesting.

A bit of information on development projects on the drawing board in Portland, battling LUBA in east Medford, halfway there at the former Children’s Farm Home outside of Corvallis, and just completed in Corvallis. And keep your eye on NOAA’s plans for Newport, jobs, new research dollars, and more jobs for the central Oregon coast!

As for the apartment market, several reports out this past week were not encouraging. Apartment vacancy nationwide is at a 22-year high water mark according to REIS and unemployment is a primary factor. Which of course places an uncertain outlook on the multifamily market for 2010. Here are two stories on the market for 2010; uncertainty, but optimism and a Washington state apartment outlook. And another highlight of the market searching for a bottom, this time from Las Vegas.

It’s time to wrap up with the Beavers, nice win over Stanford on Saturday. A bye and on to USC in two weeks. That gives us all time to recover and game plan our route to the new world.

Have a successful week!